"Many resources are always scarce, are to promote more difficult and thereby tend to be more expensive. Moreover, the world's population is growing rapidly and people in the emerging markets become wealthier and more upmarket. In addition, without prejudice to the thriving industrial production, the demand for raw materials are constantly increasing. "
This assessment will be followed by a call for the environmentally conscious, resource-saving way of life, you might say. Finally, it is indeed possible for all and long range. But far from it. The author of these lines is not due to warn against over-exploitation of Mother Earth or to express fundamental doubts about the outlined development. Rather, "these developments are good chances for investments in commodities," says the text further. This comes from the newsletter of a bank.
Good deal with commodities
And indeed, with raw materials can make good cash. Prices soared in the past from time to time in the air, brought investors such good profits and consumers higher prices. "I do not care," some people will think. & Play but cobalt, platinum, copper Co. only a minor role in the everyday life of the Otto-Normal-consumer. But resources are also the alltagsbestimmende oil and - even more importantly - sugar, grain, rice, salt, many other (basic) food. In recent years, food prices fall again into the headlines. The reason for this are often extreme weather conditions that make the harvests are bad, or even threaten the stocks.
The devastating fires in Russia threaten large parts of the wheat fields, the Government has imposed a temporary ban on exports of the grain. From June to August, the price of wheat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has doubled. Cost per ton of wheat in June, around 100 €, it was in August to pay a little more than € 200 per tonne. In Brazil, rainfall can vary the sugar harvest lousy, too little rain in India has resulted in exactly the same result. The price of sugar has only increased in July by 22 percent, year-end industry insiders expect a further increase of 28 percent again.
Determined by supply and demand only the prices?
The fact that supply and demand determine the prices of food is also, in a market economy only logical. The question is whether there are only really supply and demand, driving up prices. The clear answer is no, unfortunately! "Right now the market is determined by fear," says some of the agricultural analyst at Commerzbank, Eugen Weinberg. Speculators are at work and push up prices for agricultural commodities. Although the price increases go back not only on them, so the vineyard to the "Lausitzer Rundschau on, but the speculators can speed up the movement. And they do. The chairman of the Agricultural Trade Group BayWa, Klaus Josef Lutz, estimates that the price goes to 70 percent on the account of speculators. In some markets, harvest and demand are only secondary factors for the pricing.
We must strive not like the old Native American prophecy that man will find out only after the loss of all life, that you can not eat money. But the question must be allowed, whether with such essential items like food does not require a restriction on the speculation. Claims were often loud and then they not only came from corners, from which they would have been expected anyway. So the Wall Street legend George Soros called for in 2008 a ban on commodity speculation for U.S. pension funds. The time had severe price increases caused by just such transactions. "It's as if we secretly hoarded food in a hunger crisis in order to make profits with the rising prices," Soros then thundered in an interview with Stern. Soros himself was famous for a stock market bet against the British pound, which would also make him more rich.
Shoulder to shoulder against international speculators needed
Finance Minister Schäuble called earlier this year, also an "international shoulder to shoulder" in the regulation of commodity speculation. Condition he was not yet, however. Finally examples from the past to the argument per speculation ban be used: during the Great Depression of the 30s were futures markets in Germany in part is prohibited.
The opponents of speculation bans lead the positive aspects of price bets into the field. In the futures markets are also producers and consumers would hedge against price fluctuations. Are contracts for delivery in two months, for example, for wheat bought, so after two months relating to that fixed price, then even if wheat is actually more expensive. The producer has such planning and immediate value, the risk of the speculator. Also rising commodity prices, speculation can get something out supporters. Permanently low prices would stifle investment in production facilities, etc., which could then turn to a decline in production and thus lead to a tighter range with even higher rates.
However welcome such effects of speculation are, for the speculators are only just at the end of side effects. Their goal is not to give producers and consumers planning security and price stability. They simply want to achieve the maximum possible profit. Therefore, at least as monitoring mechanisms should be established that ensure that these benefits disappear (side) effects by speculation and not speculative excesses can be prevented. Especially in times of severe crisis could be the suspension of commodity speculation an effective way. But for this they need actually calls for an international shoulder closure, the Finance Minister Schäuble. But that is probably only a stronger form of suffering.
At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the price of wheat broke last Friday, one way, by 7.4 percent. Maybe not a good signal for the speculation opponents.
